American psychologist, Allan Teger proposed to a group of
people to bid on a 1$ bill. The starting bet was 25 cents, which was also the
amount people could raise by.
His findings are really surprising. Teger has shown that
under such circumstances one of the participants will usually quit if the amount
exceeds 7$. All of the participants would be much better of if they had quit
right at the beginning. Why don't they do that then? They fall a victim to so
called “lost money effect”.
Although the earlier investment should not
affect their evaluation of the current situation, unfortunately it does, and it
does to a great extend. If you are thinking what to do in the future, you cannot
forget what happened in the past.
The “lost money effect” may amount to extremely large sums of
money. Here is an example: Let's say you are a CEO of a big airliner and you're
thinking of getting a new airplane design. The investment has cost 9 billion
dollars so far but you need another billion to finish the project. It turns out
that your competitors are just implementing a much cheaper and much more
economic design. What will you do? Will you take the loss of 9 billion dollars,
or you invest another billion and build the new plane? If you're thinking like
most people are, you will sacrifice another billion. This way you will not lose
9 but10 billion instead. A similar situation happened in real life. When Concord
was being built, government experts from France and England were caught by
surprise by Boeing. The decision to finalize the project went against the
economic rationale. Why did that happen? Many of you probably think how it
squares with Poker.
Tha basic mechanism triggering the lost money trap is the
human aversion for sustaining losses. “Not to lose” is the basic principle of
all stock market players and business people. For Poker players this principle
is pretty much the same. By losing games, you are losing your money plus the
amount that was in the pot. When we are losing money on our investment, we very
often don't come to grips with our loss and we are blindingly trying to recover
money to at least break even. Unaware, we'll lose more and more, multiplying our
losses.
It doesn't really matter whether we're talking money here or
something else – the lost money effect will not allow us to think rationally. I
was a witness to situations where very good players were falling in this trap,
losing their entire bankroll in the end. Bad beat will never allow them to leave
the table. Although, they started the game, thinking of winning, now they only
wanted to break even. Their frustration was growing. After losing their next
hand, now they had no choice but to play. Now they didn't want to break even but
only to recoup some of the losses and reduce them a bit. Although the should
have taken their loss and left long time ago knowing that it's only a game and
losing is part of it, they kept on going on this destructive path until they had
hit the rock bottom. Even when they had managed to recover a large sum of money,
they kept on playing thinking it was just the beginning of their lucky streak.
Almost always will this type of game lead to a defeat. This phenomenon in the
Poker world is known as “tilt”. Tilt describes a player who is frustrated by the
losses and is playing against their own strategy. For example, when a player has
lost a lot of money, he is trying to desperately get it back (he looks extremely
relaxed). Very often he will stake a lot of money on cards that don't warrant
this type of risk (raising with J9 or T9).
This human aversion for losing is a most frequent cause of
players going on tilt. One of the skills that a good player should possess is to
avoid this type of emotional state. Knowing that such a phenomenon exists will
not be much of help. Most our decisions are automatic. Our earlier actions
provoke our later ones regardless whether they make any sense or not. To protect
ourselves from the “lost money effect” means to reflect and to consider what
decision would be the best and the most rational in a given situation.
We should always focus on a current situation and try not to
think about how much money we already have put in. If we feel that it's not the
day and we are frustrated by the situation, it's better to stop. Tomorrow is
another day and we have to remember that sometimes those weak players have to
win too. As always it's much easier to give advice than follow it.